Investors Should Be Worried About a Warren Presidency, Analyst Warns

September 23, 2019

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Bloomberg – Investors should be more concerned about the increasing prospects of Elizabeth Warren being the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee than any fallout from the scandal around Donald Trump’s phone call with his Ukrainian counterpart, according to AGF Investments.

The outrage surrounding allegations that Trump urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to investigate Democratic front-runner, former Vice President Joe Biden, is unlikely to affect markets, Greg Valliere, the firm’s chief U.S. policy strategist, wrote in a research note.

“Mueller never did,” Valliere said, referring to former Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into whether Trump and his team had been part of a criminal conspiracy with Russia to tilt the 2016 presidential election against Hillary Clinton.

Valliere pointed instead to “the growing possibility that Elizabeth Warren may be the Democrats’ nominee,” which is what AGF has “warned about for months.” A Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom poll released Saturday showed the senator took the lead in Iowa, barely dislodging Biden from the No. 1 spot and putting the two of them in a statistical tie.

Warren has often focused ire on the big U.S. banks, which fell in early trading Monday, along with the broader stock market. The KBW Bank Index sank as much as 1%, with bellwether Bank of America Corp. slipping 1.3%, Citigroup Inc. dropping 1.1% and JPMorgan Chase & Co. falling 1%.

Investors and analysts have voiced unease at the prospect of a Warren presidency. In July, for example, KBW said a Warren Wall Street plan hinted at “central planning.” In an April survey conducted by RBC, investors viewed Warren as the least stocks-friendly Democratic candidate, edging out Senator Bernie Sanders by 51% to 38%.

“The ultimate irony” is that Trump may be “going after the wrong opponent,” Valliere said. “His scorched Earth assault on Biden comes as the former vice president is slipping into second place in the fight to win the nomination. Warren is the candidate Trump needs to worry about; simply calling her ‘Pocahontas’ will not be sufficient to stop her momentum.”

Earlier Monday, Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani didn’t rule out the possibility that the president threatened to cut off aid to Ukraine over calls for an investigation into allegations against Biden and his son.

Read more: Giuliani Can’t Say 100% That Trump Didn’t Threaten Ukraine Aid

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